137
FXUS66 KLOX 220359
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
759 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/730 PM.

High pressure building over the region will bring a warming trend
to the area through early this coming week with highs rising
above seasonal normals by Sunday. Additional warming is likely
Thursday into Friday. A storm system moving through northern
California will bring a slight chance of rain to northwest San
Luis Obispo County late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...21/757 PM.

***UPDATE***

The only forecast issues for the immediate short term are cold
overnight temperatures in some of the wind-sheltered valleys,
including the Santa Ynez and Ojai Valleys and the area near Agoura
Hills. In these areas, Frost Advisories are in effect with lows
expected to be in the lower 30s to near 35 degrees. Offshore
breezes will keep much of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
slightly warmer tonight, with lows in the upper 30s to near 50
degrees. The offshore winds will be around 10 to 20 mph in the
wind prone valleys and passes, with gusts in the mountains up to
around 25 mph. Highs on Sunday will rise to above seasonal normal
values, in the mid 70s across the LA and Ventura Valleys and
coastal plains, and in the 60s elsewhere. Additional warming is
expected into Monday, with valley highs into the lower 80s.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will build over the Southwest
through Monday then weaken on Tuesday. At the surface, offshore
pressure gradients will strengthen through Monday then shift
weakly onshore on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are
anticipated. There could be some return of marine layer
stratus/fog Tuesday morning as onshore gradients return.
Additionally on Tuesday, the far southern part of a weak
atmospheric river will sag across San Luis Obispo county, bringing
a chance of light rain to the county. At this time, rainfall
amounts, if any, across San Luis Obispo county will be less than
one tenth of an inch.

As for winds, offshore pressure gradients are forecast to peak in
the -3.0 to -4.0 mb range through Monday. However, the upper level
support is on the minimal side. So, there will be some gusty weak
Santa Ana winds through Monday, but any advisory-level gusts will
remain localized.

As for temperatures, highs will be on the upswing for all areas
through Monday with coastal/valley temperatures topping out in the
70s to lower 80s by Monday. For Tuesday, the return of weak
onshore gradients will bring some slight cooling west of the
mountains, but there will be some slight warming across interior
sections. As for overnight lows, the air mass is moderating and
the weak offshore winds will keep lows a bit higher the next
couple of night. So, do not anticipate the need for any
Frost/Freeze products.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/1211 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, near persistent conditions will
prevail on Wednesday, but the ridge will strengthen Thursday
through Saturday. Near the surface, weak onshore flow will prevail
on Wednesday, but weak offshore flow will develop Thursday through
Saturday.

Forecast-wise, still no significant issues are anticipated. On
Wednesday, there will continue to be a chance of light rain across
San Luis Obispo county, but dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday.

For Thursday through Saturday, the building upper level ridge and
weak offshore flow will allow for a warming trend across the area
with temperatures peaking on Friday (in the mid 70s to mid 80s
west of the mountains). Skies will remain mostly clear to partly
cloudy, based on high cloud coverage. There will be some offshore
winds, but the winds will be weak and localized.

&&

.AVIATION...21/2345Z.

At 2345z at KLAX, no inversion and no marine layer were present.

High confidence in TAFs with VFR conditions and light winds
through the period. There is a 20% chance of VLIFR conds at KPRB
after 09Z-16Z, and a 20% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs for KSBP and
KSMX 09Z-16z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Any east wind component
on Sunday morning is expected to remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/736 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below SCA
levels through Monday, then NW winds will potentially increase to
SCA levels across much of the outer waters Monday night into
Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST
      Sunday for zones 348-357-371. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/CC
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Gomberg/CC
SYNOPSIS...Hall/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office